Where and when can Verstappen become world champion after his victory in Zandvoort?

Max Verstappen finds himself in an even more comfortable position than before after his fantastic win at Zandvoort. Verstappen is 109 points ahead of his teammate Sergio Perez and Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc. The question is no longer if he will become world champion, but when it will happen. We have several scenarios in mind.

Remaining GPs:

Position Formula 1 top 5

Scenario 1: Verstappen achieves the maximum score in the remaining Grand-Prixes

In other words, Verstappen will cheerfully continue what he is doing and win the next few Grand-Prix's. That would give him 26 points (including the bonus point for the fastest race lap) per Grand-Prix. Let's say his closest pursuer Sergio Perez consistently finishes in second, then Verstappen runs eight points per GP ahead of his teammate. There are, because the Russian Grand-Prix has been canceled, only seven GPs left to go. After three victories, Verstappen can no longer be overtaken by anyone and so he can become world champion in Japan, on October 9.

Scenario 2: Leclerc gets a rebound, Verstappen finishes second

Despite the fact that Verstappen seems to be by far the strongest driver, he had competition from Charles Leclerc especially in the beginning. Leclerc was already 46 points ahead of the Dutchman after 3 races, but could not follow up on his great start to the season. If the Ferrari driver now suddenly becomes as dominant as in the first few races and Verstappen logically comes second, then he will be world champion three races before the end. That is during the Grand-Prix of Mexico.

Scenario 3: Verstappen wins everything, competition drops out

This is the scenario where Verstappen can uncork the champagne the quickest. If the Dutchman gets all the points and Perez and Leclerc don't get a single point, he could become world champion as early as the Singapore Grand-Prix. That is very unlikely, and moreover an anti-climax. Nothing better than celebrating after a Verstappen victory, not on lap 13 after Perez and Leclerc have flown into a tire pile. A victory in Singapore therefore suffices in this scenario, and is also more fun than having the competition drop out earlier.

Scenario 4: Verstappen drops out once, wins the rest.

Verstappen has won the past four Grand-Prixes and last crashed out in the third race of the season. However we should never rule out the possibility of an accident. If Verstappen crashes out in Italy or Singapore and Charles Leclerc gets the maximum points it is quite likely that Verstappen becomes world champion in Japan after all. Verstappen wins almost every race he finishes, so we assume he will win one of the next two races. If Verstappen then also wins in Japan, Leclerc will hardly have room for error. He may only lose five points compared to the maximum he can get in the three races, so the Frenchman finishing in fourth place instead of a second place is already enough for Verstappen. As Leclerc 'just' snatches all the points, so first (Verstappen drops out), second, second, the Dutchman will be world champion if he finishes in the top 3 of the Grand-Prix of the United States.

Conclusion:

The most likely scenario is that Max Verstappen will win his second world title after the Japan Grand-Prix. With a bit of luck, he could even become world champion in Singapore, with five races to go.

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