Last chance for Manchester United to catch Arsenal in head-to-head clash

Life is smiling on Arsenal and Manchester United fans again after several dark years. The last time Arsenal finished in the top four was after the 2015/2016 season, now almost seven years ago. Manchester United did slightly better in recent years, but the football was often atrocious and last year the club finished only sixth. This season, Arsenal look all set for the championship and Manchester United have rebounded under Erik ten Hag. Sunday at 17:30 CET the clash between between the current leaders and the league's number three will kick off at the Emirates Stadium. This is our preview, with the best betting tips at the bottom.

What is the form like?

Arsenal and Manchester United have not lost a match since the winter break. Last weekend, The Gunners beat rivals Tottenham Hotspur at their own stadium by 0-2, while Ten Hag's men got the better of neighbours Manchester City (2-1), before having to suffer Crystal Palace's equalizer in injury time. So Arsenal have the a bit more of the momentum going. Looking, at the last five games however, both teams are completely balanced. Both teams have amassed 13 points with a goal difference of +8.

Arsenal's overall goal difference is a lot better than their opponent's though. United are doing a lot worse than Arsenal with their 42-14 at 30-22 in attack and defense. Arsenal are also still unbeaten at home, with a record of 7-1-0. Manchester United will visit, where their statistics are a lot worse than at home Old Trafford. With a record of 5-2-3, the team are vulnerable, and thus the underdogs.

Who will score, and when?

A few things stand out when we take a closer look at the top scorer list. First, both clubs have had 11 players hit the net so far, but the frequency of Manchester United's players is a lot lower than Arsenal's. The only one scoring regularly at United is Marcus Rashford, who is the club's top scorer with eight goals. Next comes Bruno Fernandes with only four goals. Cristian Eriksen is the undisputed assist king with seven prepared goals already. If he delivers an assist again this time around, you get as much as 6.00 times your stake back.

At Arsenal, midfielder Martin Odegaard surprisingly tops the table with eight goals. Right behind him, strikers Gabriel Martinelli (7), Bukayo Saka (6) and Gabriel Jesus (5) follow. All but Martinelli also provide regular assists. Saka is assist king of his club with seven, and should he also prepare a goal from a fellow player this time you will get 4.50 return your bet.

OK, then on to when goals are actually scored. Manchester United concede three times as many goals on average away from home compared to when they play at home, but they also score in 90% of their away games. Still, deeper analysis of these numbers reveals that in 66% of the away games in which United score, they only score once. In that regard, it also makes little difference in which half the goal is scored, although United generally score more in the second half, but that is mostly in home games so irrelevant now. The only interesting thing is that United gets a lot more goals against in the first half than the second half.

That's kind of interesting for opponent Arsenal, who score in 88% of their home games. Interestingly, every home game that Arsenal score in, they do so more than 1.5 times. More than two-thirds of all Arsenal's goals at home were scored in the second half. The Gunners found the net in the second half in a total of 87% of home games.

Head-to-head record

The last 10 times this game was played at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal won five times. United won thrice, with the remaining two fixtures therefore logically ending in a draw. Considering all the statistics, the odds for winning are not very surprising. For Arsenal's win you get an odd of 1.88, for a draw you get 4.10 and if Manchester United win you get 4.00.